Weekly Market Insight: January week 5

English

Market Updates

29 Jan 2024

Headline News

- Last week, Grayscale GBTC Bitcoin daily outflow decreased from approximately 14,292 to 10,932, daily AUM changes decreased from $641 million to $255 million, and the daily trading volume decreased from $867 million to $652 million.

- GBTC's AUM decreased by 2.234 billion last week, while other Bitcoin ETFs' AUM increased by $1.819 billion during the same period, the overall Bitcoin ETF AUM decreased by $415 million last week. GBTC's outflows and slowing trading volume are seen by the market as signs of weakness in GBTC's profit-takers. BTC slowly rose from $38,524 on Tuesday (the lowest level in 2024) to a high of $42,819 on Sunday.

Macro-Outlook

- US Q4 GDP was 3.3% well above the estimated 2% growth and core PCE price index increased 0.2% in December, aligned with market expectation. The first FOMC in 2024, expecting questions to be asked regarding the Fed balance sheet, alternative plans after BTFP ending on 11th March, and rate-cut consideration. The market is placing 96.9% probability the rate will remain unchanged.
- Furthermore, US Treasury will be facing an increased volatility in the upcoming Treasury Quarterly Refunding. Earnings from big techs such as Microsoft, Google, Qualcomm, Apple and Amazon will be released this week. This week will be a big week.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

- Tuesday, 30th January 11:00pm: US JOLTs Job Openings in December
- Thursday, 1st February 3:00am: FOMC Meeting
- Thursday, 1st February 11:00pm: US ISM Manufacturing PMI in January
- Friday, 2nd February 9:30pm: US Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate in January

Cryptos-Outlook

Layer 1 and Layer 2

- Sui's Mysten Labs partnered with Alibaba Cloud to launch a series of new services to support Move developers.
- Solana introduced token extensions, an easy implementation of advanced token functionality on Solana, such as confidential transfers, transfer fees, non-transferibility, required memo on transfer etc.
- Sei introduced SeiDB, a v2 designed to scale the network performance throughput by 2x.

Dapps

- Struct was granted $1 million in AVAX by Avalanche Rush incentives, aiming to deepen its structured finance products liquidity.
- Uma introduced Oval, empowered lending protocols to capture Oracle Extracable Value by auctioning the right to liquidate positions.
- Synapse RFQ bridging is live, turning bridge transactions into auctions, making them faster and cheaper.
- Picasso restaking vaults is live. The launch will be conducted in 3 rounds with 50K, 150K and 500K SOL caps.
- Magpie introduced Eigenpie, the isolated liquid restaking platform, joining the liquid restaking war.
- GammaSwap introduced DeltaSwap, a zero fee spot decentralised exchange.
- Helium announced a partnership with Telefonica to launch Helium Mobile Hotspots in Mexico.
- Perpetual Protocol introduced v3, featuring better UI and Smart Liquidity Framework, creating a modular system to integrate multiple models like XYK-style AMMs, RFQs, CLOBS and oracle-based strategies.
- CowSwap has passed its testing fee models for the next 6 months, which includes improvement fees, surplus fees, transaction volume-based fees, and fixed fees. The fees will cap at 1% of total trade volume.
- Umani has launched GMX v2 single-sided LP vaults.
- Lyra-chain has been integrated with Celestia.
- Aevo migrated to Celestia.

Upcoming Alpha: Token Unlock, Governance

- SuperVerse major announcement is expected on 30th January.
- MultiversX CEO to make a key announcement on 31st January.
- Jupiter Exchange is expected to launch JUP token on 31st January.
- Frame, Arbitrum Nitro powered NFT platform L2 is expected to launch on 31st January.
- Magic Eden has announced its airdrop in coming months and launched a reward program.
- Cosmos proposed ATOM wars, enabling stakers to lock up to a year in exchange for boosted governance power.
- Hundreds of thousands of RON were transferred to Binance hot wallet. The action was speculated for potential listing in Binance. Some stated its likely collection of customers mistaken deposits of RON.
- Io.net team confirmed airdrop to its partners. Io.net partners including Render, Filecoin and Solana.
- OP token unlocked on 30th January, amount representing 2.52% of the token supply.
- SUI token unlocked on 30th January, amount representing 4.02% of the token supply.
- DYDX token unlocked on 1st February, amount representing 10.63% of the token supply.
- ACA token unlocked on 1st February, amount representing 3.10% of the token supply.
- GAL token unlocked on 5th February, amount representing 5.76% of the token supply.

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