Weekly Market Insight: January week 2

English

Market Updates

08 Jan 2024

Headline News

- BTC plummeted almost 10% last Wednesday on the headline report “Why the SEC will REJECT Bitcoin Spot ETFs again” from Matrixport, just one day after the company released another article on Bitcoin Spot ETF approval imminent. The event liquidated $685million worth of crypto futures, resetting the heated market aggregate funding rate from 52% to 5.5%.

- However, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst suggested the probability of ETF to be rejected decrease from 10% to 5%, arguing SEC would need to have substantial reason to reject the applications after making all the applicants go through multiple amendments in ETF documentations.

Macro-Outlook

The US 10-Year Treasury yield increased 18.4bps last week, as market reevaluates the pace of rate cut in 2024. US unemployment rate in December was 3.7%, below market consensus of 3.8%. Non-Farm Payrolls was 216K, well above 170K forecast, which the major contribution came from the government sector. This week is crucial for the credit market as several Fed members are speaking this week, release of inflation data and 30-Year bond auction.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

- Thursday, 11th January 9:30pm: US Inflation rate in December

- Friday, 12th January 2:00am: US 30-Year Bond Auction

- Friday, 12th January 9:30pm: US PPI in December

Cryptos-Outlook

- VanEck pledges to donate 5% of its Bitcoin ETF profit to support Bitcoin Core developers for at least 10 years.

- Celsius started its recalling and rebalancing of assets, causing sudden increase in validator exit queue length.

Trending Protocols

Layer 1 and Layer 2

- Mina announced the Berkeley upgrade in 2024, improving performance such as time slot reduction and validator optimisation.

- Nubit announced its debut to be the first Bitcoin-native data availability layer.

Dapps

- Synthetix announced further details regarding Andromeda Release, which 40% of Perps V3 fees on Base will buyback and burn SNX.

- Jupiter announced the initial token distribution plan for January. JUP is allocated evenly to team wallet and community wallet, which 15% of the community wallet will be used for first airdrop and near term community needs. 15% - 17.5% of tokens will be liquid from day one.

- Dymension announced 7% of supply to be distributed as airdrop, with the majority allocation to TIA stakers.

- Curve Finance has integrated with ZetaChain.

- Radiant Capital suffered a flash-loan attack and lost approximately 1,900 ETH.

- Tarot Finance announced TNX, an ultra-high performance orderbook powered by Fantom Sonic, is coming soon in 2024.

- Lyra announced to upgrade its data availability layer to Celestia.

Upcoming Alpha: Token Unlock, Governance

- MakerDAO developer Sam MacPherson announced the rebranding plan and potential 1:24,000 token split.

- Ethena, a new yield-bearing stablecoin issuer, has issued $100 million USDe and is expected the mainnet to launch this month.

- APT token unlocked on 12th January, amount representing 8.05% of the token supply.

- CYBER token unlocked on 14th January, amount representing 8.51% of the token supply.

- APE token unlocked on 17th January, amount representing 4.23% of the token supply.

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