Weekly Market Insight: January week 1

English

Market Updates

02 Jan 2024

Headline News

- BTC was traded relatively thin last week and futures aggregated open interest decreased 4%, could be the calm before the storm. Funding rate remains over 0.037% (40.5% annualised) in the past week, usually indicating heavy long interest or weak shorting pressure. CME futures has approximately 3% premium in pricing.

- The US SEC may notify approved ETF issuers this week according to Reuters, while Fox Business argued the announcement is more likely to be made next week as the SEC still needs to review amended S-1 filed last week. This also aligns with the high implied volatility in option dated on 12th January.

Macro-Outlook

The US 10-Year Treasury Yield closed the year at 3.866% from 3.831% at the beginning of 2023, despite all the massive volatility during the year. The bond market is expected to move slowly into 2024 as the rate is expected to remain unchanged in January and the market has already priced in 82% probability the Fed will cut 75bps by June, unless the incoming job reports are significantly below expectation.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

- Wednesday, 3rd January 11:00pm: ISM Manufacturing PMI in December & JOLTs Job Openings in November

- Thursday, 4th January 3:00am: FOMC Minutes

- Friday, 5th January 9:30pm: Non-Farm Payrolls in December

- Friday, 5th January 11:30pm: ISM Services PMI in December

Cryptos-Outlook

- BTC UTXOs in profit has reached the highest, 94% since 2021. Long term holders continue to set a record high.

- Blackrock has submitted 5th amended S-1 to the US SEC.

- MicroStrategy brought another $615M worth of BTC.

- Orbit Chain, a cross chain protocol, was exploited and lost over $80M users' fund.

Trending Protocols

Layer 1 and Layer 2

- Map Protocol announced partnership with Google Cloud to create a more accessible environment for both newcomers and developers.

- Shimmer Network (IOTA sister chain) announced a partnership with LayerZero for better cross-chain communication.

- Parallel Finance announced to launch omni-chain L2 in Arbitrum to aggregate liquidity across all L2s.

- Neon EVM introduced Neon Points for community contributions in creating, engaging and participating.

Dapps

- Unibot announced to support trading bot in Solana ecosystem.

- BendDAO announced to support BRC20 bridging.

Upcoming Alpha: Token Unlock, Governance

- Arbitrum staking proposal was passed and expected to be implemented soon. The staking yield was projected to have a minimum of 7.84% with 100% circulating ARB staked.

- Blast Layer 2 is expected to launch its testnet soon and mainnet in February.

- Ethereum Goerli and Sepolia Testnet Dencun fork are expected soon.

- Solana Firedancer is expected to launch in the first half of 2024, allegedly enabling Solana to process 1M TPS and more redundancy.

- BNB Greenfield will launch its testnet hardfork on 4th January.

- SUI token unlocked on 3rd January, amount representing 3.35% of the token supply.

- GAL token unlocked on 5th January, amount representing 3.34% of the token supply.

- APT token unlocked on 12th January, amount representing 8.07% of the token supply.

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