Weekly Market Insight: November week 2

English

Market Updates

07 Nov 2023

Headline News

BTC price weekly increased 1.41% while BTC dominance dropped 116bps, indicates shifting of fund flow and increasing risk tolerance by investors on altcoins as the result optimistic developments announced in several conferences last week and speculation of peaked US treasury yield after Jerome Powell’s speech in FOMC press conference with promising job reports released on Friday.

Macro-Outlook

- Treasury updated its Quarterly Refunding Auctions to from previous $102 billion to $112 billion, lower than forecast.

- Fed kept the interest rate unchanged in the November FOMC meeting. Powell constantly brought up the lag effect, current monetary policy is restrictive enough and Fed needs to proceed cautiously. Market interprets Fed might finish rate hike, 10 year treasury yield dropped 26.5bps, while S&P raised 5.85% in the past week. Expectation for the December rate to remain unchanged increased from 79% to 90% in a week.

- The unemployment rate in October was 3.9% higher than expected 3.8%, while non-farm payrolls was 150K compared to estimated 180K. The job reports showed further market confidence on inflation outlook as lower than expected job creation, higher non-farm productivity and lower unit labor cost showed further signs of deflationary trend in production.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

- Wednesday, 8th November 10:15pm: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, opening remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference.

- Friday, 10th November 3:00am: Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Policy Panel Discussion at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference.

- Friday, 10th November 11:00pm: Michigan Consumer Sentiment in November.

Cryptos-Outlook

- Jane Street, Virtu Financial, Jump Trading and Hudson River Trading have held talks with BlackRock about a market-making role to potentially provide liquidity for BlackRock's bitcoin ETF after regulatory approval.

- ValkyrieFunds submitted a new amended prospectus for their spot Bitcoin ETF.

- ProShares is rolling out ProShares Short Ether Strategy.

- Hong Kong SPC head said to access spot crypto ETFs in pursuit of Asia's digital hub.

Trending Protocols

Layer 1 and Layer 2

- Solana announced at the Breakpoint conference that Firedance upgrade is now live on testnet. Circle announced EURC and Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) will be coming soon to Solana.

- Celestia's highly anticipated governance token, TIA, has launched with a fully diluted valuation of over $2.3 billion.

- Landslide Network launched the testnet for its IBC light client on Avalanche, enabling seamless interoperability between Avalanche & Cosmos.

Dapps

- dYdX Ops SubDAO is launched, token holders are able to bridge into the dYdX chain for staking. V4 alpha-trading is not available yet.

- Render is live on Solana, with 1.14M RNDR to incentivise token holders for bridging into Solana. The team reported a 75% increase in RNDR paid as new job types were introduced.

- The Sandbox announced open publishing of user-generated content and 100M SAND for Game Maker Fund on Global Creators Day.

- OpenSea Pro announced the launch of Polygon and supported cross-chain asset exchange on Ethereum and Polygon by integrating Socket.

- Yuga Labs partners with Magic Eden to launch creator royalties focused ETH marketplace.

- Awarded Japanese gaming Genso is committed to building on Immutable zkEVM.

- Radiant is officially live on Ethereum.

- Osmosis disrupted for over 3 hours, but prices remain steady as most liquidity is on Osmosis.

- Nomic bridged nBTC is live on Cosmos interchain.

- Prisma Finance introduced its governance token PRISMA together with its DAO.

- Redacted cartel launched Pirex ETH on testnet.

- Lens v2 is live on the mainnet.

- Frax Finance lost control of Frax.finance and Frax.com domain for 6 hours.

- Telegram trading bot Unibot was hacked and around $600K was stolen (which is fully covered by Unibot team afterwards).

- Aave received an issue report on certain features of the protocol and paused assets across several markets. The team stated there is no risk to the funds.

Upcoming Alpha: Token Unlock, Governance

- OpenAI conference on 6th November: Related token: WLD & AI-related tokens.

- NEARCON 2023 will be held from November 7th to 10th in Lisbon Portugal.

- Scroll users are able to claim Scroll Origin NFT starts on 14th December.

- SWIFT Standards Pinplus MX Release 2023 Live on 19th November. SWIFT is Chainlink’s CCIP partner.

- SSV’s voting on incentivised mainnet program, which last for 12 months is likely pass. The reward tokens will be newly minted by the DAO with a maximum 1M SSV cap (9% of total supply).

- ARB tokens for STIP have been transferred to ecosystem protocols. Arbitrum staking proposal voting is active and most likely pass in the next hours.

- Illuvium will launch its Ascendant Arena PvP mode soon.

- APT Token Unlocked on 12th November, amount representing 10.02% of the token supply.

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