Weekly Market Insight: November week 1

English

Market Updates

30 Oct 2023

Headline News

Market continued the rally on BTC Spot ETF sentiment, BTC Futures Open Interest (OI) has reached 2023 high, particularly CME OI has reached 100K BTC for the first time. Funding rate surged to the highest since June. Actions on communication between BTC Spot ETF applicants and SEC continued to be seen, Bitwise had submitted amendment no.1 to Form S-1. BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (iBTC) listed, removed and re-listed on DTCC website, which caught many eyeballs last week, but DTCC clarified this move is not indicative of any regulatory approval but part of the application process.

Macro-Outlook

US Q3 GDP reported 4.9%, indicated resilience economy compared to estimated 4.3%. US September durable goods surged by 4.7% month-over-month, significantly surpassing market expectation of 1.7%, which primary driven by strong demand for transportation equipment. Core PCE in September raised 0.3% month-over-month, within expectation but still the most increase since May. This week there will be 3 major rate-related events. The market anticipated boosted auction sizes by US Treasury in the upcoming quarterly refunding due to the growing concern of the fiscal deficit, FOMC meeting (99% of market expect rate remains unchanged in November) and October jobs data on Friday.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

- Wednesday, 1st November 8:30pm: US Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement

- Wednesday, 1st November 10:00pm: US ISM Manufacturing PMI in October

- Thursday, 2nd November 2:00am: FOMC interest rate decision and press conference

- Friday, 3rd November 8:30pm: US October Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate & ISM Service PMI

Cryptos-Outlook

- BTC supply remain very constraint, sum coin-age and UTXOs in profit ratio surged higher, indicated increasing in number of hodlers.

- Core developer, Potuz commented on ACDC's call that Dencun upgrade will not be implemented in 2023 due to consistent consensus issues on devnets #10.

Trending Protocols

Layer 1 and Layer 2

- Polygon’s token upgrade is live on ETH mainnet, MATIC holders can now migrate their tokens to POL in integrated dapps such as ParaSwap. Users able to claim an exclusive Early Adopters NFT on Polygon ID.

- Fantom’s Sonic upgrade is live in testnet, increased the network throughput by 4x and 1 second finality.

- Celestia introduced Blobstream, enable modular DA solution for Ethereum that scales based on Data Availability Sampling (DAS), increase rollup data throughput.

- Arbitrum Orbit is now mainnet ready, featuring BOLD (new fraud proof system), Stylus (alternative language smart contract deployment) and Nitro (scaling). Celestia announced to support Orbit and the full Nitro stack.

- Neo announced to launch a MEV-free and EVM compatible sidechain.

- Chiliz announced to open Chiliz chain for fan-centric application deployment in SportFi ecosystem.

- BNB Chain deployed a multi-sig wallet service based on the Gnosis Safe protocol on both BSC and opBNB.

Dapps

- dYdX v4 is mainnet live, all fees generated by the dYdX chain protocol will be distributed to validators and stakers every time a new block is committed. Bridging is recommended after the SubDAO public bridge front end is live.

- Floki launched TokenFi, its sister tokenisation protocol featuring easy deployment. Floki holders are eligible to stake and earn TokenFi’s TOKEN.

- Lido’s wstETH is now facilitated by LayerZero to Avalanche, BNB and Scroll. Swell introduced Super swETH, encourage stakers to deposit stETH into the vault, which it will be converted into swETH to earn addition DAO revenue on top of staking reward.

- SushiXSwap v2, new iteration of cross-chain DEX, is now live.

- OpenSea introduced Shipyard, an open source collection of Solidity contracts for NFT creators.

- Memecoin, a metaverse project by 9GAG is listed as the 39th project on Binance Launchpool.

- Gnosis Pay opened a pre-order for self-custodial Visa debit card for EEA, UK and Switzerland users. Angle Euro Savings solution, stEUR, activated on Gnosis, stakers are able to stake agEUR at 4% APY.

Upcoming Alpha: Token Unlock, Governance

- Solana Breakpoint conference in Amsterdam starts on 30th October to 3rd November. Render is expected to announce Render 2.0 soon.

- Lens v2 is scheduled on 30th October, dev guide was released.

- Upcoming OpenAI conference on 6th November draws attention to AI-related cryptos in CT.

- Prisma Finance to introduce PRISMA token on 2nd November.

- SWIFT Standards Pinplus MX Release 2023 Live on 19th November. SWIFT is Chainlink’s CCIP partner.

- Scroll users are able to claim Scroll Origin NFT starts on 14th December.

- Bancor proposed to use 1.8K ETH to buy and burn BNT.

- Arbitrum proposed a final version of the staking mechanism, where experimentally funded by the Arbitrum DAO treasury initially and then by the "mint function" after March 15th, 2024.

- Uniswap passed Temp Check on investing in Ekura Protocol, a Starknet AMM, with 3 million UNI for 20% of Ekura token.

- DYDX Token Unlocked on 31st October, amount representing 1.21% of the token supply.

- IMX Token Unlocked on 4th November, amount representing 1.5% of the token supply.

- LQTY Token Unlocked on 5th November, amount representing 0.7% of the token supply.

- GAL Token Unlocked on 5th November, amount representing 16.36% of the token supply.

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