(9/52) Weekly Market Insight | March Week 2 | $100 Per Barrel

Headline News: $100 Per Barrel

• Following a short squeeze in the $70k range, Bitcoin surged to $74k last week before heavily retracing and surrendering the majority of those gains. Concurrently, driven by indications of prolonged geopolitical conflict, widespread energy production shutdowns, and ongoing shipping disruptions, oil prices rallied above $100 per barrel, the highest level observed since June 2022. These elevated energy costs are exerting renewed upward pressure on inflation and straining fiscal budgets, which has injected further uncertainty into future monetary policy and driven a pervasive risk-off sentiment across broader markets.

Macro-Outlook:

• The US ISM manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.4 in February, above market expectations of 51.8. Meanwhile, ISM services PMI surged to 56.1, well above market expectation of 53.5.
• The US non-farm payrolls decreased by 92K in February, much worse than the forecasts of a 59K gain. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.4% in February, above the market expectations of 4.3%. The market estimates about 48% probability that the first rate cut will happen in June.
• President Trump explicitly stated the goals of the campaign are regime change, the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and “unconditional surrender.” At least seven major countries in the Middle East have been forced to halt, suspend, or significantly cut their oil and natural gas production. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively shut down despite the US announced plans to protect commercial shipping. WTI crude surged beyond $100 per barrel.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

• Wednesday, March 11, 8:30pm: US Inflation Rate in February
• Friday, March 13, 8:30pm: US PCE, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Personal Spending in January and Q4 GDP

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Convergence of Crypto Exchanges and TradFi

• JPMorgan Chase released a report forecasting the CLARITY Act could pass by mid-2026, providing regulatory clarity, boosting tokenization, and accelerating institutional adoption.
• FDIC, Federal Reserve, and OCC jointly issued guidance that tokenized securities receive the same capital treatment as non-tokenized equivalents under bank rules.
• Kazakhstan’s central bank announced plans to invest up to $350 million in cryptocurrency assets and related companies starting April-May 2026.
• Nasdaq followed Cboe by exploring binary bets and prediction-style contracts as prediction market activity surges on Wall Street.
• Kraken Financial received a Federal Reserve master account, becoming the first digital asset bank with direct access to the US payments system.
• OKX announced a strategic relationship with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), including direct investment, board seat, licensing of OKX spot prices for US futures, and access to ICE futures/NYSE tokenized equities for 120 million users.
• Coinbase introduced Token Manager, a new tool for automated vesting, lockups, bulk distributions, tax withholding, and document workflows.
• Crossmint partnered with Western Union to bring USDPT stablecoin on Solana to millions of users via 360,000+ global on/off-ramps.
• Kalshi launched the first-ever luxury watch market in partnership with Bezel, allowing users to trade watch price movements without ownership.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• Solana introduced Agent Registry, the Solana implementation of ERC-8004, providing verified identity, reputation, and validation registries for AI agents with native onchain track records.
• Polygon released the Polygon Agent CLI, an end-to-end toolkit for agents including session-scoped wallets, cross-chain bridging, and ERC-8004 identity support.
• Sui Sentinel launched the world’s first crowdsourced AI red teaming platform on Sui, where anyone can attack AI systems and earn instant crypto rewards.

Dapps

• Lido completed Lido V3 Phase 3 rollout with permissionless stETH minting for all stVaults, extended minting caps for Identified Node Operators, and upgraded tiers for more granular configuration.
• Espresso Network upgraded to proof-of-stake, with the stake table activating and staking rewards accruing.
• Solflare launched the Privacy Aggregator Layer (PAL) with Private Send, the first native privacy feature in a Solana wallet that breaks the sender-recipient link using Houdini Swap.
• Pump.fun expanded its mobile app to support trading coins from other launchpads, WBTC, PUMP, USDC, and more.
• Genius Terminal launched PropAMMs on BNB Chain in collaboration with Wintermute, offering 70% cheaper USDT-BNB swaps and 1.2x volume multiplier.
• Wasabi launched its Prop AMM on Base with professional market making for tighter spreads and deeper liquidity.
• Backpack introduced onchain IPO access in partnership with Superstate, enabling direct share allocations on Solana before stock exchange trading.
• MetaDAO launched Futardio, a platform for founders to raise directly from aligned communities with rug protection and continuous market pricing.
• ENS introduced ENSIP-25, a standardized text record for verifying AI agent ownership of ENS names, enabling wallets and apps to display verified identities for autonomous agents.
• Obol shipped Obol Stack v0.6.0 with a local Qwen 3.5 9B model by default for its agents, running on less than 10GB RAM.
• Jupiter launched the Jupiter Card integrated into Jupiter Mobile, enabling spending of wallet balances anywhere Visa is accepted with 1-1.8% FX fees.
• Kaito AI launched Kaito Studio beta for intentional brand-creator matching with 16 launch partners, helping brands find the right ambassadors or creators.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• Polkadot announced its economic model reset on March 12, capping DOT supply at 2.1B, reducing emissions 53.6%, eliminating treasury burns, and introducing a Dynamic Allocation Pool.
• Akash Network put the Burn-Mint Equilibrium (BME) proposal onchain for vote, with upgrade scheduled for March 23, burning AKT used for computing and introducing WASM smart contracts.
• Fluid teased DEX V2 launch this month for volatile pairs with concentrated liquidity.
• Hyperliquid received HIP-6 proposal for permissionless token launch auctions using continuous clearing auctions adapted to its CLOB, with proceeds auto-seeding HIP-2 liquidity and aligned quote asset utility.
• Aave-Chan Initiative (ACI), one of the core Aave DAO contributors, announced it is leaving Aave after years of service.
• Pendle outlined its 2026 roadmap focused on CEX Highway, one-click leverage, cross-chain PTs, infinite liquidity, advanced notifications, and top-tier customer service.
• Definitive launched new EDGE rewards directing 20% of revenue to weekly buybacks with distributions to stakers and traders, plus simplified fees and lower rates for staked EDGE holders.

Token Unlock

• VANA token unlocks on March 16, amount representing 4.47% of the token supply.
• STBL token unlocks on March 16, amount representing 83.3% of the token supply.
• ZRO token unlocks on March 20, amount representing 10.3% of the token supply.
• KAITO token unlocks on March 20, amount representing 7.29% of the token supply.
• XPL token unlocks on March 25, amount representing 4.94% of the token supply.
• SAHARA token unlocks on March 26, amount representing 4.56% of the token supply.
• FF token unlocks on March 29, amount representing 5.26% of the token supply.