(1/52) Weekly Market Insight | January Week 3 | Wave of Stimulus

Headline News: Wave of Stimulus

• Bitcoin consolidates around $90,000 following a failed attempt to break the $95,000 resistance level. Despite Spot ETFs recording a $681 million net outflow last week, weekly trading volume surged by 30%, signaling a resurgence of market participation.

Macro-Outlook: Spotlight on Macro Events

• The US December nonfarm payrolls gained by 50,000, below the expectations of 60,000. The US unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, below the market estimations of 4.5%, pointing to some improvement in underlying labor market slack. The market currently estimates a 96% chance interest rate will remain unchanged in January.
• The US ISM manufacturing PMI decreased to 47.9 in December, well below expectations of 48.3. Meanwhile, ISM services PMI increased to 54.4, well above expectations of 52.3.
• The market currently estimates a 23% chance the US government will be shutdown on January 31.
• The market expects the Supreme Court to have a 31% chance to rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs. The ruling is expected to be made on January 14. White House stated having “plan B” to reinstate the tariffs if Supreme Court rules against them.
• President Trump stated the US will acquire Greenland through negotiation or force for strategic reasons against Russia and China. The market currently estimates a 42% chance the US will take control of a part of Greenland by 2029. President Trump also threatened to intervene in Iran if the protests turn violent.
• President Trump also announced a $200 billion purchase of mortgage bonds, a 10% interest cap on credit cards, and a ban on institutional purchases of single family homes.
• The major US financial institutions like JP Morgan, Bank of America, Blackrock etc are releasing their Q4 earnings this week.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

• Tuesday, January 13, 9:30pm: US Inflation Rate in December
• Wednesday, January 14, 9:30pm: US PPI and Retail Sales in November
• Thursday, January 15, 3:00am: Fed Beige Book

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Highway in the West; Bump in the East

• Morgan Stanley filed for spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, a strategic move to capture advisory assets and expand their ETF business. Morgan Stanley is also planning to launch its digital wallet for tokenized assets later in 2026.
• BNY Mellon launched tokenized deposit service for on-chain payments, collateral, and settlements, accelerating digital asset expansion.
• Barclays made its first stablecoin investment backing Ubyx, a clearing system for stablecoins and tokenized deposits.
• Fireblocks acquired Tres Finance to create unified OS for digital assets, enabling automated financial records from blockchain activity for compliance and integration.
• Strategy announced MSCI confirmed Digital Asset Treasury Companies remain in MSCI Indexes for the February 2026 review.
• South Korea plans to allow spot crypto ETFs including Bitcoin in 2026, accelerating legislation referencing US and Hong Kong markets.
• Florida introduced bill for strategic Bitcoin reserves allocating up to 10% of public funds to BTC and ETFs.
• Tennessee regulators issued cease-and-desist to Polymarket and others for unlicensed sports betting, requiring operations to halt by January 31.
• China classified RWA tokenization as illegal finance, warning domestic and overseas operators of liability for unauthorized activities.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• Polygon deployed Dandeli hardfork increasing capacity 30% and stabilizing gas, advancing Gigagas roadmap toward full onchain money infrastructure.
• Tempo launched TIP-20 token standard for stablecoins, featuring transfer memos, compliance policies, yield rewards, and multi-stablecoin gas fees.
• TRON DAO partnered with Wirex to develop an on-chain payment layer for instant, autonomous global value transfers, focusing on agentic payments and stablecoin infrastructure.
• Arbitrum deployed ArbOS Dia upgrade, enhancing fees during spikes, throughput foundations, passkeys for onboarding, interop gas tokens, and Ethereum Fusaka compatibility.
• Fluent introduced Prints, unique onchain proofs of humanity and reputation for filtering bots and finding valuable users.
• Plume powered the launch of GemStone by BlackOpal, tokenizing Brazilian credit card receivables for institutional yields in emerging markets.
• Canton Network announced JPMorgan extending JPM Coin to Canton for institutional RWA and collateral ecosystem.
• ADI Chain, an institutional RWA-focus L2 MENA, partnered with M-Pesa to onboard 60 million users in Africa for cross-border settlements via dirham-backed stablecoin.
• Starknet was restored after a four-hour outage affecting block production.

Dapps

• Jito launched IBRL Explorer to analyze block production, introducing IBRL Score to measure validator quality and highlight issues like late packing and slot lagging for better network performance.
• Jupiter launched JupUSD, a reserve-backed USD stablecoin in partnership with Ethena, initially backed 90% by USDtb and 10% USDC, features institutional custody, open-source code with audits, and integrations into lending, trading, perps, and mobile.
• Pump.fun introduced creator fee sharing for up to 10 wallets, ownership transfer, and authority revocation; signals more changes to fees for better trader incentives and project utility.
• Ondo Finance added 98 new tokenized stocks and ETFs to Global Markets, expanding onchain access to traditional equities with blockchain liquidity.
• World Liberty Financial applied for a national trust bank charter to issue and custody USD1 stablecoin, targeting institutional services.
• Yield Basis added ETH pools, enabling users to create impermanent-loss-less yield-bearing ETH positions.
• Lighter disclosed revenues will fund growth and token buybacks, trackable onchain via treasury account.
• Tether Gold introduced Scudo, a granular unit equaling 1/1000 of an XAU₮ gold ounce, enabling easier on-chain transactions and tracking of physical gold in smaller amounts.
• Parcl launched real estate prediction markets on Polymarket for housing prices in major US cities and nationwide, settling against Parcl’s indices.
• Delphi Digital also partnered with Polymarket to create tradable research markets, turning institutional forecasts into prediction markets.
• Polymarket partnered with Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones as the exclusive prediction market provider, supplying data for financial news and features.
• Polymarket introduced taker fees on 15-minute crypto markets to fund maker rebates for better liquidity, keeping most markets fee-free.
• StraitsX enabled Apple Pay In-App provisioning for Pionex cards, supporting instant activation via Visa BIN sponsorship for seamless mobile payments.
• Zcash developers quit the Electric Coin Company after board clash and formed a new entity, potentially fragmenting development of privacy-focused cryptocurrency.
• Virtuals Protocol updated its launch model with three tiers: Pegasus for prototyping, Unicorn for scaling, Titan for high-liquidity mature projects; with new baseline liquidity requirements, fee adjustments, and automated revenue sharing to enhance agent ecosystems.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• US Senate committees to vote on crypto market structure bills January 15.
• Polygon unveiled the Polygon Open Money Stack, a vertically integrated system for seamless onchain money movement, targeting global payments and institutional adoption.
• Optimism Foundation proposed monthly OP token buybacks to support token value amid ecosystem growth.

Token Unlock

• ZKC token unlocks on January 15, amount representing 6.71% of the token supply.
• VANA token unlocks on January 16, amount representing 4.47% of the token supply.
• SOLV token unlocks on January 17, amount representing 26.9% of the token supply.
• DBR token unlocks on January 17, amount representing 14.3% of the token supply.
• ONDO token unlocks on January 18, amount representing 61.4% of the token supply.
• ZRO token unlocks on January 20, amount representing 10.3% of the token supply.
• KAITO token unlocks on January 20, amount representing 3.46% of the token supply.
• PLUME token unlocks on January 21, amount representing 44.2% of the token supply.
• HYPER token unlocks on January 22, amount representing 7.42% of the token supply.
• XPL token unlocks on January 25, amount representing 4.94% of the token supply.
• SAHARA token unlocks on January 26, amount representing 5.02% of the token supply.