(52/52) Weekly Market Insight | January Week 2 | Geopolitical Risk Resurgence

Headline News: Geopolitical Risk Resurgence

• Bitcoin reclaimed the $91,000 mark for the first time since December 12, closing the week with a 4.08% gain amidst escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela. The rally was supported by $458.77 million in net weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. The focus shifts to this week’s fund flows to gauge institutional sentiment as year-end tax-loss harvesting pressures subside.

Macro-Outlook: Macro-Uncertainty

• The US launched targeted airstrikes on key military infrastructure in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. President Trump stated the US will “run” Venezuela until a “safe, proper, and judicious transition” can be achieved, and confirmed continued oil supply for China. The geopolitical escalation is seen to have limited immediate global economic impact, with effects concentrated on energy, yet elevating long-term risk sentiment across markets.
• The December FOMC minutes showed most participants suggested keeping the future rate unchanged after lowering 25bps in December, with concern over inflation.

The upcoming Economic Calendar includes,

• Monday, January 5, 11:00pm: The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in December
• Wednesday, January 7, 11:00pm: The US ISM Services PMI in December and JOLTs Job Openings in November
• Friday, January 9, 9:30pm: The US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate in December
• Friday, January 9, 11:00pm: The Michigan Consumer Sentiment in January

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: More Altcoin ETFs

• Grayscale filed an initial S-1 registration for the Grayscale Bittensor Trust (GTAO), advancing toward converting it into the first US-listed TAO ETP for Bittensor, the decentralized AI protocol.
• Bitwise submitted SEC applications for 11 single-asset cryptocurrency ETFs, including AAVE, UNI, ZEC, ENA, HYPE, NEAR, STRK, SUI, TAO, and TRX Strategy ETFs, expanding potential institutional exposure.
• The OECD’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) takes effect on January 1, 2026, mandating crypto platforms in the UK, EU, and 48 other jurisdictions to report user tax data for enhanced global compliance.

Dapps

• Zama, a Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) protocol, launched its mainnet and executed the first confidential stablecoin (cUSDT) transfer on Ethereum.
• iExec RLC, a privacy-focused decentralized compute platform, became the first TEE decentralized provider on TDX, boosting confidential computing on Arbitrum.
• Lighter, a low-cost low-latency perpetual trading platform on Ethereum L2 using custom ZK circuits, listed its LIT token on the mainnet.
• Jupiter Exchange announced Jupiter Mobile V3, a native pro trading terminal with improved UX for discovery, analysis, and low-fee trading, featuring rollouts over 21 days.
• Spreads Finance, a DeFi protocol focused on amplified yields through vaults, launched its mainnet, enabling users to deposit USDC, mint sprUSD, and earn enhanced yields or points from integrated DeFi applications.
• Jeju, an open decentralized permissionless internet platform by Eliza Labs offering compute, storage, and agent-powered security, was announced and launched on testnet, enabling cross-chain token usage without bridging to shift value accrual to applications.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• Gnosis will announce its 3.0 vision and 2026 roadmap during its AMA session on January 7.
• BNB Chain extended its zero gas fees carnival for USDC, USD1 and U until January 31.
• Pendle launched a new feature enabling protocols to add extra rewards to their markets, starting with Midas’ YTs mHYPER and mAPOLLO expiring January 29, 2026.
• Tria, a crypto-neobank protocol, outlined Q1-Q2 2026 plans including futures, prediction markets, on/off-ramps, AI agents, and Season 2 rewards targeting over $1 billion transactions.
• Aave Labs plans to propose sharing a portion of off-protocol revenue with AAVE token holders, including governance and risk safeguards, in response to community discussions.
• Jupiter Exchange is considering shifting protocol revenue from buyback to alternative options including incentive payout, staking yields and trading discounts.

Token Unlock

• MOVE token unlocks on January 10, amount representing 5.78% of the token supply.
• LINEA token unlocks on January 10, amount representing 6% of the token supply.
• HOME token unlocks on January 10, amount representing 4.16% of the token supply.
• RAIN token unlocks on January 10, amount representing 11% of the token supply.
• US token unlocks on January 10, amount representing 6.32% of the token supply.
• BB token unlocks on January 13, amount representing 10.9% of the token supply.
• ZKC token unlocks on January 15, amount representing 6.71% of the token supply.
• VANA token unlocks on January 16, amount representing 4.47% of the token supply.
• SOLV token unlocks on January 17, amount representing 26.9% of the token supply.
• DBR token unlocks on January 17, amount representing 14.3% of the token supply.
• ONDO token unlocks on January 18, amount representing 61.4% of the token supply.