(5/52) Weekly Market Insight | February Week 2 | Extreme Fear

Headline News: Extreme Fear

• Bitcoin revisited “Extreme Fear” levels not seen since the post-LUNA collapse of 2022. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator mirrored this weakness, falling to 12% and entering bear market territory for the first time since March 2023. However, the drawdown was short-lived, as Bitcoin quickly rebounded 15% from the $60,000 lows to close the week with near $70,000.

Macro-Outlook: Strong Economy, Weak Labor Market

• The US manufacturing PMI increased to 52.6 in January, significantly higher than the market expectations of 48.5. The US services PMI also demonstrated strong production in January, increased to 53.8, above market expectations of 53.5.
• The US JOLTs job openings decreased to 6.542 million in December, significantly below market forecasts of 7.2 million. The US ADP employment also indicated a soft labor market, added 22K jobs in January, below market forecasts of 48K.
• Meanwhile, Michigan consumer sentiment increased to 57.3 in February, higher than market expectations of 55.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

• Tuesday, January 10, 9:30pm: US Retail Sales in December
• Wednesday, January 11, 9:30pm: US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate in January
• Friday, January 13, 9:30pm: US Inflation Rate in January

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: China Expanded RWA Tokenisation Regulation

• Chinese authorities issued new rules reiterated 2021 crypto ban aspects while formally defining and regulating RWA tokenization under approved infrastructure, introducing filing for offshore tokenization of onshore assets.
• CME Group plans to launch “CME Coin” potentially on blockchains and partners with Google on tokenized cash solutions in late 2026.
• BBVA joined Qivalis group of 12 major EU banks to launch a regulated euro stablecoin under MiCA, targeting to rollout in H2 2026.
• Startale and SBI Holdings introduced Strium Network, a dedicated Layer 1 blockchain purpose-built for 24/7 trading of tokenized securities and real-world assets.
• Crypto.com launched OG prediction market app, a US-focused CFTC-regulated platform for sports, politics, crypto, and culture events with plans for margin trading.
• Coinbase launched Coinbase Predict, its native prediction market platform for sports, politics, crypto, and cultural events.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• Ethereum’s ERC-8004 is live on the mainnet. It is a new standard developed with MetaMask, Google, Coinbase, and others to enable portable reputation and verifiable identity for AI agents.
• Ripple secured a full EU EMI license in Luxembourg, enabling broader European operations. Ripple also announced Ripple Prime brokerage support for Hyperliquid, enabling institutions to access onchain derivatives liquidity with cross-margining.
• NEAR AI introduced AI Agent Market, expanding intents to a decentralized marketplace for autonomous agent tasks and payments in NEAR token.

Dapps

• Ondo launched Ondo Perps, offering up to 20x leverage on US stocks and ETFs perpetuals. Ondo also introduced Ondo Global Listing, enabling near real-time onchain tokenization of US stock IPOs from day one across major blockchains for global permissionless access, and received EU regulatory approval to access investors across 30 EU/EEA markets.
• MetaMask integrated Ondo tokenized US stocks and ETFs, enabling 24/5 trading and 24/7 transfers directly in-wallet.
• Hyperliquid announced the launch of HIP-4 testnet, introducing fully collateralized contracts for prediction markets, bounded options-like instruments, and novel applications.
• Silhouette, shielded trading platform on top of Hyperliquid, launched Open Beta for shielded spot HYPE/USDC with delegated execution, user-controlled funds, and upcoming compliance features.
• Arcium, the privacy protocol on Solana, announced Mainnet Alpha live, and debuting Umbra as a shielded finance layer for confidential onchain applications.
• Hush Protocol, a privacy layer on Solana, introduced shielded JitoSOL, enabling private transactions while accessing yield.
• Ventuals launched the V2 app with 24/7 tradfi perps trading, new points program, referrals, growth mode fee reductions, and increased leverage to 20x.
• Jupiter Exchange integrated Polymarket on Solana, bringing the largest prediction market to the chain for seamless onchain trading alongside Kalshi.
• DFlow launched DFlow Proof, enabling trustless real-world identity verification on Solana without centralized KYC infrastructure for seamless onchain applications.
• Virtuals Protocol introduced ACP integration with OpenClawd agents, enabling agent token launches and incentives to accelerate the AI agent economy on Base.
• ENS announced ENSv2 deployment on Ethereum L1, ceasing Namechain development while maintaining multi-chain support and upcoming cross-chain .eth registrations.
• Pump.fun acquired Vyper, an advanced multichain trading terminal. The Vyper infrastructure will migrate to Pump.fun’s own trading terminal, Terminal.
• Chance, a prediction markets aggregator, launched a 2.0 update with redesigned UX, advanced analytics, Moonpay deposits, limit orders, and aggregated trading across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion Labs.
• Pandora, a P2P parlay system on Polymarket developed by HeyAnon, introduced parlay trading for high-multiplier bets or counterparty compounding on user degeneracy.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• MegaETH introduced MEGA token utilities including USDM yield buybacks and Proximity Markets bidding, with TGE triggered by ecosystem KPIs like USDM circulation and app deployment. MegaETH will launch its mainnet on February 9.
• Resolv Labs shared its 2026 roadmap update highlighting expansion of partnerships in RWA yield integrations and delta-neutral allocation in equities and commodities.

Token Unlock

• LINEA token unlocks on February 10, amount representing 5.74% of the token supply.
• HOME token unlocks on February 10, amount representing 4% of the token supply.
• LAYER token unlocks on February 11, amount representing 57% of the token supply.
• VANA token unlocks on February 15, amount representing 4.47% of the token supply.
• STBL token unlocks on February 16, amount representing 57.7% of the token supply.
• ZRO token unlocks on February 20, amount representing 10.3% of the token supply.
• KAITO token unlocks on February 20, amount representing 13.5% of the token supply.
• PLUME token unlocks on February 21, amount representing 4.62% of the token supply.
• AVNT token unlocks on February 23, amount representing 4.64% of the token supply.
• XPL token unlocks on February 25, amount representing 4.94% of the token supply.