(26/52) Weekly Market Insight | July Week 2 | Liquidity Rotation

Headline News: Liquidity Rotation

• Bitcoin rallied over 6% to open the first week of July, driven by a combination of exhausted sell-side momentum and softening U.S. macroeconomic data. The latest weak labor market print effectively capped expectations of Fed hawkishness, triggering a pullback in short-term Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index. In response, both Bitcoin and gold caught strong bids as global liquidity proxies. This macro tailwind coincided with a sharp reversal in institutional flows on Thursday, when spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $221 million net inflow, the highest single-day intake in 2 months.

Macro-Outlook: Labor Force Contraction

• The US JOLTs job openings increased to 7.594M in May, above the market expectations of 7.3M. Meanwhile, the non-farm payrolls decreased to 57K in June, well below market forecasts of 110K with a downward revision of May payrolls from 172K to 129K. However, unemployment rate recorded 4.2% in June, below market forecasts of 4.3% as participation rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points in June.
• The US ISM manufacturing PMI decreased to 53.3 in June, below market expectations of 54.
• During the European Central Bank Forum in Portugal, Fed Chair Warsh signaled the Fed balance sheet would shrink far slower than anticipated and emphasized that inflation remains too high.
• The Fed fund futures yield curve didn’t change much from a week ago, anticipating 76% of rate hikes in 2026.

The Upcoming Economic Calendar includes,

• Monday, July 6, 10:00pm: US ISM Services PMI in June
• Thursday, July 9, 2:00am: US FOMC Minutes

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Bitcoin Monetization Program

• Strategy unveiled a Digital Credit Capital Framework, raising its USD Reserve to $2.55 billion, increasing the STRC dividend rate to 12%, launching $1 billion repurchase programs, and establishing a $1.25 billion Bitcoin monetization program which sells Bitcoin to fund the capital framework.
• Open Standard introduced Open USD, a stablecoin built for the internet economy and backed by Visa, Mastercard, with support from Coinbase, Solana, Aave, Polygon, Plasma, Tempo and other major institutions.
• Cloudflare opened the waitlist for its Monetization Gateway, enabling developers to charge for web pages, APIs, or MCP tools with payments settling directly in stablecoins via the x402 protocol.
• LINE NEXT plans to launch Unifi Pay globally in Q3, enabling zero-fee payments in USDT, JPYC, and IDRP with 1-second settlement and a developer SDK that builds a payment page in 10 minutes.
• OKX launched OKX AI, a marketplace where AI agents can discover work, hire each other, complete tasks, and receive onchain payments.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• Robinhood unveiled major updates including Robinhood Chain mainnet launch, Robinhood Earn with up to 7% APY via Morpho vaults, maker-taker crypto fees, agentic trading features, and Canada expansion.
• Mantle integrated Openstock pre-IPO vaults, enabling users to invest in private company shares,starting with Zhongji Innolight (largest global supplier of optical modules for AI data centers), with onchain redemption at listing.

Dapps

• Arcus rebranded from dYdX and launched as the leading DEX on Robinhood Chain, offering 24/7 trading on 95 stock tickers with 0% fees and institutional liquidity. The existing DYDX exchange and DYDX Chain are still fully active and separate.
• Hyperliquid powered VALR, Africa’s largest centralised exchange, on its perps trading infrastructure with markets.
• Paribu, a Türkiye-based regulated centralised exchange, integrated Hyperliquid and Polymarket into its interface to offer perpetual trading and prediction markets.
• Chainlink advanced multiple institutional tokenization initiatives, including the Digital Transfer Agent standard with UBS/Swift, NAV data feeds with Fidelity and WisdomTree, and support for Amundi’s tokenized fund.
• Virtuals integrated its AI agent infrastructure into Robinhood Chain, enabling users to launch, fund, and use agents in tokenized markets.
• World.xyz (not World Network) launched on Solana as a fully onchain prediction market inside Phantom wallet, powered by Chainlink oracles and CASH stablecoin, starting with crypto and 2026 FIFA World Cup markets.
• Ethena announced a collaboration with BlackRock to integrate USDe into the Aladdin platform, use BUIDL as the primary asset for its whitelabel product, and provide a liquidity facility for BlackRock tokenized products.
• Fluid joined the Hashi ecosystem on Sui to provide institutional-grade credit markets for native Bitcoin collateral, alongside Cumberland and SwissBorg.
• Canborsa launched its DEX on Canton with tokenized stocks, up to 30x leverage, $10,000 max position size, and improved volume-based points multipliers.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• Jupiter Finance announced its GUM, the omnichain exchange that enables unified trading of any token across chains with one identity and one balance, will be launching this week.
• Drift rebranded to Velocity, marking a new architecture and security foundation for its Solana perpetual exchange, with private beta planned for select partners this week.
• Ethereum Institutional launched as an independent non-profit to accelerate institutional adoption of Ethereum and its ecosystem, founded by the former EF enterprise team with backing from BitMNR, Sharplink, and ethereumJoseph.
• Solana launched onchain governance via Stake-Weighted Validator Voting (SGP), allowing validators with ≥100k SOL delegated to submit proposals that require 15% network stake support to reach a formal vote.
• Aave will power a dedicated V4 instance on OP Mainnet for EtherFi Cash, with EtherFi managing the fully owned infrastructure and risk parameters.

Token Unlock

• BB token unlocks on July 13, representing 10.9% of the token supply.
• PUMP token unlocks on July 14, representing 22.8% of the token supply.
• ZKC token unlocks on July 15, representing 5.16% of the token supply.
• VANA token unlocks on July 16, representing 4.47% of the token supply.
• SOLV token unlocks on July 17, representing 27.2% of the token supply.
• DBR token unlocks on July 17, representing 12.1% of the token supply.
• ERA token unlocks on July 17, representing 44.3% of the token supply.
• KAT token unlocks on July 18, representing 4.17% of the token supply.
• ZRO token unlocks on July 20, representing 10.2% of the token supply.
• KAITO token unlocks on July 20, representing 7.29% of the token supply.
• SCR token unlocks on July 22, representing 5.79% of the token supply.