(23/52) Weekly Market Insight | June Week 3 | Shift of Geopolitical Risk

Headline News: Shift of Geopolitical Risk

• Bitcoin rose 3.73% as peace deal between the US and Iran is expected to be signed soon. Bitcoin sustained the price above 200-week moving average, but the trading volume remained relatively low as part of the market is sitting sideways for confirmation of the new Fed monetary policy led by Warsh this coming Thursday.

Macro-Outlook: Tolerable Inflation Rate

• The US and Iran announced a deal has been reached and will be signing the terms on June 19 in Switzerland. The agreement is expected to include extension of ceasefire for 60 days, further technical discussion around Iran’s nuclear program, reopens Strait of Hormuz, and lifts sanctions against Iran.
• The US inflation rose to 4.2% in May, the highest level since April 2023, in line with market expectations. This represents the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline inflation. However, core inflation increased by 0.2% in May, slightly below market expectations of 0.3%, indicating prices excluding food and energy were relatively well anchored.
• The US PPI suggested a similar indicator. Headline PPI rose to 6.5% in May, slightly above market expectations of 6.4%, while core PPI matched April reading of 4.9%, below forecasts of 5.4%. The probability of rate hikes by the end of the year reduced from 78.4% to 48.7%.
• The European Central Bank announced the first rate hike by 25 basis points in 2026, citing renewed inflation risk due to rising energy costs.

The Upcoming Economic Calendar includes,

• Wednesday, June 17, 8:30pm: US Retail Sales in May
• Thursday, June 18, 2:00am: US FOMC Meeting

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Convergence of TradFi

• Japan’s three megabanks, Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui, and Mizuho plan to jointly issue a fiat-backed stablecoin by 2026 through a new consortium.
• Strategy acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million, increasing its Bitcoin reserve to 845,256 BTC, while also boosting its USD reserve by $100 million to $1 billion.
• VanEck launched the VanEck BNB ETF, the first ETP offering spot exposure to BNB Chain.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• BNB Chain launched bStocks, 1:1-backed tokenized US securities issued by Binance, users are able to mint and redeem the tokenised stocks with the underlying stock directly on Binance.
• Hedera enabled real-time streaming cash flows for tokenized securities via Archax, with interest payments updating near-instantly in wallets using USDC as ownership changes.
• NEAR launched Hyperliquid confidential perpetual contracts trading integration, allowing deposits of any supported asset from 35+ chains and up to 40x leverage.
• Starknet launched STRK20, a privacy framework for ERC-20 assets enabling shielded balances, private transfers, and swaps. It uses note-based privacy pools with ZK proofs and has a fixed ~4 STRK cost per private transaction.

Dapps

• Ether.fi announced expanded fiat payment capabilities, allowing users to send money in 6 currencies (USD, AED, BRL, EUR, ILS, INR) across 120+ countries via bank transfers (ACH, SEPA, PIX, etc.).
• Ethena selected Centrifuge to support part of the RWA allocation that backs USDe. The partnership started with JAAA private credit fund as the first allocation into the portfolio.
• Spark announced that institutional capital held in custody via BitGo can now access on-chain credit markets through structured allocation into Spark Savings vaults, where funds are deployed across multiple credit venues based on predefined liquidity, exposure, and allocation parameters.
• Ondo Perps opened Public Beta access for select traders to trade equity perps on US stocks, ETFs, and commodities.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• Polymarket plans to launch a new high-margin product Combo, similar to traditional sport betting parlays, a combinatorial position where users are considered won if all outcomes in the basket of events are all YES.
• Curve Finance introduced Llamalend v2, a new lending framework allowing Curve LP tokens as collateral in isolated markets with improved range-based liquidations powered by LLAMMA, launching first on Optimism.
• Plasma is expected to launch Plasma One, its new neobank app that is optimised for zero-fee USDT transfers.
• Ethereum developer Tom Lehman proposed EIP-8182 for the Hegotá hard fork to introduce optional, protocol-fee-free native privacy transfers directly at the Ethereum L1 layer.

Token Unlock

• KAT token unlocks on June 18, representing 11.8% of the token supply.
• ZRO token unlocks on June 20, representing 10.2% of the token supply.
• KAITO token unlocks on June 20, representing 7.29% of the token supply.
• LISTA token unlocks on June 20, representing 8.71% of the token supply.
• AVNT token unlocks on June 23, representing 7.22% of the token supply.
• H token unlocks on June 25, representing 14.8% of the token supply.
• XPL token unlocks on June 25, representing 4.94% of the token supply.
• TAKE token unlocks on June 25, representing 7.15% of the token supply.
• SAHARA token unlocks on June 26, representing 30.9% of the token supply.
• WCT token unlocks on June 26, representing 9.01% of the token supply.
• RESOLV token unlocks on June 27, representing 21.6% of the token supply.