(12/52) Weekly Market Insight | April Week 1 | Markets Expect TACO Soon

Headline News: Markets Expect TACO Soon

• Bitcoin recorded moderate losses last week, pressured by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a broader correction in traditional equities. The S&P 500 has declined 7.41% month-to-date, putting it on track for its worst monthly performance since September 2022. While near-term Middle East resolution expectations remain pessimistic, markets are increasingly anticipating intervention from President Trump to withdraw from the region, as the US 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.5%, injecting significant stress into the financial sector and government debt.

Macro-Outlook: Threats on Bab al-Mandab Strait

• Despite President Trump announcing a halt on military operations on Iran’s power plants until April 6, the escalation in the region over the past week has not de-escalated. Yamen’s Houthi Group threatened to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which handles 12% of global trade. Iranian officials dismissed the negotiations with the US, claiming they were cover for a ground attack, and created the “Hormuz Law” for a formal toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction markets expect a 70% probability that the US will deploy ground troops by the end of April.
• Markets are currently pricing in a 25% probability of a rate hike in 2026, compared to just a 1.3% chance of a cut, driven by prolonged geopolitical conflicts and elevated inflation expectations.

The Upcoming Economic Calendar includes,

• Tuesday, March 31 10:00pm: US JOLTs Job Openings in February
• Wednesday, April 1 8:30pm: US Retail Sales in February
• Wednesday, April 1 10:00pm: US ISM Manufacturing PMI in March
• Friday, April 3 8:30pm: US Jobs Report in March

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Stablecoin Yield Compromise

• The CLARITY Act reportedly made a compromise on stablecoin yield, restricting platforms from offering yield “directly or indirectly” or anything “economically or functionally equivalent” to interest in stablecoins while permitting “activity-based” rewards.
• Tether signed KPMG (Big Four accounting firm) to complete its first full audit.
• Securitize signed an MOU with the NYSE naming it the first eligible transfer agent to mint blockchain-native securities on the upcoming tokenized securities platform, advancing onchain settlement and market infrastructure.
• Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) received official NYSE listing announcement, signaling launch is imminent and expanding institutional BTC access via legacy wealth channels.
• Australia’s central bank stated that stablecoins and bank deposit tokens can coexist as part of its $17B national tokenization drive.
• BitGo launched event-linked derivatives on its OTC desk for institutional prediction market access.
• Whop, a social commerce platform, introduced Whop Treasury, letting users earn 6% yield on all platform earnings in a self-custodial account powered by Aave, Plasma and Moonpay.
• FHFA ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare proposals allowing cryptocurrencies as reserve assets in single-family home loan risk assessments.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• Bitpanda launched Vision Chain to tokenize EU markets, enabling compliant issuance/settlement for banks and fintech under MiCA/MiFID II using euro stablecoins for fees.
• Canton Network announced Visa as its new Super Validator to advance privacy-preserving blockchain payments and stablecoin infrastructure for banks and financial institutions.
• ZKsync partnered with BitGo to deliver a production-ready solution for tokenized deposits, combining institutional custody, wallets, and private compliant settlement anchored to Ethereum for banks.
• Midnight partnered with Monument Bank to enable the first UK-regulated bank to tokenize retail customer deposits on its privacy-enhancing blockchain, targeting an initial £250 million in interest-bearing, GBP-backed, FSCS-protected tokens with shielded transaction data.

Dapps

• Katana launched Katana Perps (following the acquisition of IDEX), a native perpetuals DEX built on structural/sustainable yield from Vault Bridge USDC rather than token emissions.
• Silo Finance launched Silo v3, introducing isolated lending markets with protocol-level solvency guarantees via DEX liquidation when liquidity is good and Collateral-Debt Swap (directly transfers collateral to lenders plus fees) during a fragmented liquidity environment.
• Derive activated onchain borrowing, letting users deposit collateral and borrow USDC at low rates directly on the platform.
• MoonPay open-sourced the Open Wallet Standard (OWS), a local-first Rust-based protocol for AI agents providing one encrypted vault, unified signing across chains, and zero private-key exposure.
• Ondo Finance partnered with Franklin Templeton to bring tokenized versions of its investment products onchain via Ondo Global Markets for 24/7 wallet-based access.
• Particle Network upgraded Universal Accounts with full EIP-7702 support, making any app chain-agnostic; seamless EOA connection, gas abstraction, and cross-chain deposits.
• Pudgy Penguins launched the Pengu Card in collaboration with KAST, making it available globally across 170+ countries with three tiers offering up to 12% rewards plus up to 7% yield.
• Aevo launched PERPS+, bundling perpetuals with options into one-click structured products featuring enhancers for simplified directional trading without options complexity.
• Birch Hill launched an onchain credit facility backed by Groma’s tokenized multifamily REIT, enabling permissioned borrowing of USDC against real estate equity via Yearn-curated Morpho markets on Base.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• Balancer announced wind-down of Balancer Labs and kept the protocol under DAO framework, while proposing to route 100% fees to the DAO, halting all BAL token emissions ($500K compensation to veBAL) and an approximately $3.6M buyback program.
• Venice announced a phased 50% VVV emissions reduction from 6 million to 3 million tokens per year starting May 1 2026 (May: 6M→5M; June: 5M→4M; July: 4M→3M) on the path to a deflationary token with native yield via increased revenue-driven burns.
• Lido published a proposal authorizing the Growth Committee to purchase LDO using up to 10,000 stETH from the DAO treasury.
• Aave published the ARFC for the Aave Will Win Framework, directing 100% of product revenue to the Aave DAO treasury, unbundling V4 activation and brand & IP protection, and detailed budgeting compared to Temp-Check.

Token Unlock

• EIGEN token unlocks on April 1, representing 5.71% of the token supply.
• EDGE token unlocks on April 2, representing 50.2% of the token supply.
• ZAMA token unlocks on April 2, representing 5.21% of the token supply.
• LINEA token unlocks on April 10, representing 4.31% of the token supply.
• BABY token unlocks on April 10, representing 23.5% of the token supply.
• DBR token unlocks on April 17, representing 12.5% of the token supply.
• KAT token unlocks on April 18, representing 8.08% of the token supply.
• ZRO token unlocks on April 20, representing 9.78% of the token supply.
• KAITO token unlocks on April 20, representing 7.29% of the token supply.