(8/52) Weekly Market Insight | March Week 1 | Energy Disruption

Headline News: Energy Disruption

• Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $787.31 million in net inflows last week, marking their first positive weekly flow since mid-January. Despite this influx, Bitcoin’s price declined 2.76% amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The market quickly absorbed the risk, with price action rebounding from a weekend low of $63,000 to the $66,000 range. Market participants remain focused on developments in the region, specifically potential disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz.

Macro-Outlook: War to Push for Regime Change

• The US and Israel launched massive, coordinated preemptive military strikes on Iran. Iran launched retaliatory attacks within hours across the Gulf. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, was announced dead. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later warned that no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US PPI eased to 2.9% in January, above market expectations of 2.6%.

The Upcoming Economic Calendar includes,

• Monday, March 2, 11:00pm: US ISM Manufacturing PMI in February
• Wednesday, March 4, 11:00pm: US ISM Service PMI in February
• Friday, March 6, 9:30pm: US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate in February, Retail Sales in January

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Stock Trading Push by CEXes

• The SEC clarified that broker-dealers can apply a 2% haircut to stablecoin holdings for net capital purposes, allowing such holdings to meaningfully count toward capital requirements.
• The UK FCA selected four firms (Monee, ReStabilise, Revolut, VVTX) to test stablecoin issuance in its Regulatory Sandbox starting Q1 2026.
• Meta is reportedly planning to restart its plans for stablecoin in H2 2026, partnering with a third-party vendor to power payments across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
• Startale Group and SBI Holdings introduced JPYSC, the first trust bank-backed Japanese Yen stablecoin issued by Shinsei Trust & Banking, with Startale building the regulated digital yen infrastructure.
• HashKey Group launched its One-Stop RWA Solution in Hong Kong, offering full-lifecycle services with institutional-grade blockchain and compliance.
• Kraken expanded xStocks Perps to include TSLAx, AAPLx, NVDAx and more, now available for 24/7 trading.
• Coinbase opened stock trading to all US users with over 8,000 stocks and ETFs, 24/5 trading, and a new partnership with Yahoo Finance for real-time discovery.
• Binance listed Ondo tokenized securities on Binance Alpha with 0% fees, seamless CEX funding, and 10 assets at launch, plus upcoming trading campaigns.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• NEAR Intents activated its fee switch, introducing revenue sharing with distribution partners to drive protocol revenue and NEAR value accrual.
• Starknet introduced strkBTC, a newly wrapped Bitcoin token with optional built-in privacy features, allowing users to choose between transparent and shielded modes for balances and transfers in DeFi.
• Initia introduced its native stablecoin iUSD, backed by AUSD and bridged via LayerZero, directing all yield back to the Initia ecosystem with reward opportunities for liquidity providers and lenders.
• Aptos announced that Decibel, a fully onchain trading engine co-developed by Aptos Labs, is now live.

Dapps

• Pendle introduced tradeable yields on Aave aRLUSD and aPYUSD from Ripple and PayPal, enabling fixed yields and speculation on institutional stablecoins.
• MetaMask launched the MetaMask Card in the US, offering a Metal Card with 3% cashback on the first $10,000 spend, and zero foreign transaction fees.
• MoonPay partnered with PayPal and M0, introduced PYUSDx, a new stablecoin tokenization framework backed 1:1 by PayPal USD for rapid issuance, distribution, and interoperability.
• Injective launched its real-time EVM mainnet upgrade, exponentially enhancing the chain to provide lightning-fast payments, tokenization, and finance for builders, institutions, and users.
• Symbiotic unveiled a major collaboration with Ether.fi and other partners, delivering real yield through institutional-grade restaking infrastructure.
• Arbital introduced institutional market making infrastructure, giving access to professional-level strategies on perp DEXs like GRVT, Pacifica, and Extended.
• Shield launched as a self-custodial privacy wallet built on Aleo, enabling users to hold and move crypto without exposing balances, counterparties, or transaction details by default.
• 42 launched on BNB Chain, bringing continuously tradable event markets that settle objectively on truth with dynamic pricing and uncapped upside.
• XMTP collaborated with Mask Network to bring its secure decentralized messaging to the Mask, Lens, Orb, and Firefly ecosystems.
• Play.fun launched as pump.fun for games on Solana, enabling every viral game to launch its own token via bonding curves where players spend tokens in-game to create built-in demand.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• Polygon announced releasing Lisovo Hardfork on March 4 to subsidise agent-to-agent gas costs for payments, improve smart contract compatibility and more.
• Particle Network teased a major update with the message “EVERYTHING WILL BE ALRIGHT” scheduled for March 24.
• Fluid put forward a governance proposal to establish the Fluid Foundation, moving the protocol and its IP rights toward full community ownership and long-term sustainability.
• The Temp Check for the “Aave Will Win” proposal has passed, advancing a fully token-centric model that directs 100% of product revenue to the AAVE token.

Token Unlock

• LINEA token unlocks on March 10, amount representing 4.91% of the token supply.
• VANA token unlocks on March 16, amount representing 4.47% of the token supply.
• STBL token unlocks on March 16, amount representing 83.3% of the token supply.
• ZRO token unlocks on March 20, amount representing 10.3% of the token supply.
• KAITO token unlocks on March 20, amount representing 7.29% of the token supply.
• XPL token unlocks on March 25, amount representing 4.94% of the token supply.
• SAHARA token unlocks on March 26, amount representing 4.56% of the token supply.
• FF token unlocks on March 29, amount representing 5.26% of the token supply.