(4/52) Weekly Market Insight | February Week 1 | 7-Handle

Headline News: 7-Handle

• Bitcoin dropped 11.17% to under $80,000 last week, battered by a combination of geopolitical instability in Iran, US government shutdown, and hawkish signals surrounding Kevin Warsh’s nomination. The sell-off was exacerbated by sustained spot ETF outflows and stalled regulatory progress, which continues to drive capital away from the sector in the near term.

Macro-Outlook: Partial Shutdown

• The Senate passed a funding package to keep the government open, but the bill is expected to be enacted this week after being passed by the House and signed by the President. The US government is currently on partial shutdown.
• President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates that Warsh might cut rates, but aggressively shrink the Fed Balance sheet in exchange for maintaining “sound money” credibility.
• The January FOMC kept the interest rate unchanged. The Fed Chair Powell stated the upside risk of inflation and downside risk of the labor market have been diminishing.
• The US durable goods orders increased by 5.3% in November, significantly higher than the market forecasts of 3.7%.
• The US core PPI increased to 3.3%, well above the market expectations of 2.9%, largely driven by rising services prices.

Upcoming Economic Calendar,

• Monday, February 2, 11:00pm: US ISM Manufacturing PMI in January
• Tuesday, February 3, 11:00pm: US JOLTs Job Openings in December
• Wednesday, February 4, 9:15pm: US ADP Employment Change in January
• Wednesday, February 4, 11:00pm: US ISM Services PMI in January
• Friday, February 6, 9:30pm: US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate in January
• Friday, February 6, 11:00pm: Michigan Consumer Sentiment in February

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Crypto Policies Postponement

• SEC delayed the decision on crypto innovation exemptions, raising concerns across the industry about regulatory hurdles for new protocols and products.
• SEC clarified tokenized securities fall into issuer-sponsored tokens (direct DLT integration) as standard securities while reclassifying unauthorized third-party wrappers (synthetic/linked assets) as security-based swaps.
• BlackRock files S-1 for iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, employing covered calls on IBIT shares to generate premium income.
• VanEck launched the first-ever Avalanche ETF, VAVX, on Nasdaq.
• Kraken launches DeFi Earn, offering up to 8% APY on assets via automated vaults powered by Aave, Morpho, and other protocols.
• WisdomTree expanded its tokenized funds to Solana network.
• Fidelity launched FIDD stablecoin on Ethereum with institutional-grade reserves and compliance.
• Binance announced converting its $1 billion stablecoin SAFU emergency fund to Bitcoin in the next 30 days.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• Ethereum announced ERC-8004 for portable AI agent reputation live on mainnet soon.
• Mantle launched MNT on Solana via Super Portal, demonstrating instant cross-chain transfers and DeFi integrations.
• Optimism unveiled OP Enterprise, offering managed, permissioned blockchain infrastructure with full revenue control for large institutions entering Web3.
• Linea integrated Phylax’s Credible Layer, adding proactive smart contract exploit prevention and real-time monitoring to enhance security for users and builders.
• Citrea, Bitcoin’s ZK rollup, announced mainnet launch, enabling trust-minimized programmable BTC with cBTC bridge and ctUSD native stablecoin.

Dapps

• Bitwise debuted an onchain vault via Morpho, targeting up to 6% yield on USDC.
• Uniswap integrated Continuous Clearing Auctions into its web app, introducing easy access to new protocol token price discovery auctions. Uniswap also rolled out Uniroute, delivering better prices on over 50-70% of swaps across chains.
• Lido launched V3, introducing modular stVaults, allowing third parties to deploy isolated, custom-configured staking strategies that maintain distinct operator sets and risk profiles while still inheriting stETH’s deep liquidity and composability.
• SSV Network introduces staking with composable cSSV, routing ETH validator fees to staked SSV holders.
• Jupiter launched Offerbook, a permissionless time-based money market on Solana featuring no price-based liquidations and flexible borrowing terms. Jupiter also launched Global, delivering onchain fiat on-ramps, QR Pay, virtual accounts, and crypto-linked cards to bridge traditional and decentralized finance.
• OpenMind announced a partnership with AGIBOT, integrating Lingxi humanoid robots into its App Store ecosystem.
• XMAQUINA introduced the RCM Protocol, a liquidity layer for private robotics equity through SubDAO tokens, enabling fractional ownership and trading of physical robot assets.
• Ostium, a decentralized RWA perps platform, launched Uranium trading.
• Flying Tulip launched PUT Options Marketplace for secondary trading of ftPUTs, providing early investors and public sales investors a channel to monetise their perpetual put options.
• ZetaChain launched 2.0 featuring AI Portal and Private Memory Layer that allows users to cryptographically own and port their encrypted context across different apps.
• Lighter mandated staking of LIT for LLP access and enables LLP as collateral. Lighter also detailed EVM upgrades including async writes and potential synchronous execution.
• Polaris, a self-scaling stablecoin operating system that generates yield from market volatility, introduced pUSD as its native overcollateralized stablecoin with sustainable returns.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• White House is scheduled to have a “closed-door” conversation about CLARITY Act with senior leaders from the banking and crypto sectors on February 2.
• Ondo is hosting the Ondo Summit on February 3 in New York City.
• Flying Tulip launched public sales on Coinlist from February 2 to February 4.
• Fluid-powered Venus Flux will be launching on BNB Chain on February 4, bringing enhanced lending and borrowing efficiency through its liquidity aggregation technology.
• MegaETH announced its public Mainnet launch scheduled for February 9, promising sub-millisecond latency and extreme throughput for real-time Ethereum applications. MegaETH also introduced KPI-based rewards, unlocking over half of the total MEGA supply to locked holders upon achieving key protocol milestones.
• Bybit plans to launch MyBank in February 2026, providing personal IBANs and banking services post-KYC to bridge centralized and decentralized finance for its users.
• Axelar outlined the 2026 roadmap featuring co-staking with blue-chip assets to enhance network economic security.
• Filecoin outlined the 2026 roadmap including onchain deal payments and enforcing stricter allocator stewardship model to ensure network incentives are solely toward verified, useful data storage.

Token Unlock

• LA token unlocks on February 4, amount representing 5.94% of the token supply.
• BERA token unlocks on February 6, amount representing 46.1% of the token supply.
• LINEA token unlocks on February 10, amount representing 5.74% of the token supply.
• HOME token unlocks on February 10, amount representing 4% of the token supply.
• LAYER token unlocks on February 11, amount representing 57% of the token supply.
• VANA token unlocks on February 15, amount representing 4.47% of the token supply.
• STBL token unlocks on February 16, amount representing 57.7% of the token supply.
• ZRO token unlocks on February 20, amount representing 10.3% of the token supply.
• KAITO token unlocks on February 20, amount representing 13.5% of the token supply.