(46/52) Weekly Market Insight | November Week 4 | Extreme Fear

Headline News: Extreme Fear

• Bitcoin closed down 7.9% last week, breaking below the $81,000 price level. Selling pressure was driven by a confluence of headwinds, including declining probabilities of a December rate cut before Friday, concerns over AI valuations affecting the US stock market, and the potential removal of Strategy from MSCI and Nasdaq 100 indices. This risk-off sentiment triggered $1.22 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, keeping the Crypto Fear and Greed Index firmly in ‘Extreme Fear’ territory.

Macro-Outlook: Quick Change in December Rate-Cut Expectation

• The US non-farm payrolls increased by 119K in September, higher than market expectations of 50K. However, August non-farm payrolls revised from 22K jobs added to a net loss of 4K jobs. The US unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September, exceeding market expectations of 4.3%.
• New York Fed President John Williams indicated “near-term” room for a rate cut as employment risks rise and inflation eases. Though officials’ views remain split as seen in the October FOMC minutes, the market still increased the probability of a December rate-cut from about 30% to 70% last Friday.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed that there will be no October CPI report and the November CPI data is scheduled for release on December 18, 2025 (after December 11, FOMC meeting).

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

• Tuesday, November 25, 9:30pm: US PPI and Retail Sales in September
• Wednesday, November 26, 9:30pm: US Durable Goods Orders in September and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• Thursday, November 27, 3:00am: Fed Beige Book
• Thursday, November 27: The US stock markets closed (Thanksgiving)
• Friday, November 28: The US stock markets open until 1pm ET

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Expanding Prediction Markets; Aave App

• Multiple Ripple ETFs and Solana ETFs (from Fidelity, 21Shares, VanEck, Canary, Bitwise and more) have launched with $11.89 million and $128.2 million of net inflow respectively. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced $1.22 billion and $500.25 million net outflow last week.
• Strategy Inc reportedly faces potential removal from major benchmarks like the MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100. Strategy’s mNAV is currently trading below 1.
• Coinbase acquired Vector.fun, a Solana NFT and token trading platform. Additionally, Coinbase also launched zero-fee USDC loans against cbETH on Base, powered by Morpho.
• Circle introduced xReserve, enabling developers to create USDC-backed stablecoin seamlessly with 1:1 USDC exchange capabilities.
• StockX partnered with Kalshi to launch prediction markets on collectibles such as Labubu and sneakers.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• India plans to launch ARC, a stable digital asset pegged 1:1 to the Rupee, in Q1 2026. The project is a joint development between Polygon and Anq, designed to operate alongside the RBI’s CBDC. Mastercard also partnered with Polygon to launch username-based transfers for self-custody wallets.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) partnered with IOTA, World Economic Forum and Institute for Global Change, to build a public digital infrastructure connecting Africa with seamless cross-border trade, instant payments & secure digital identities.
• Aztec, the privacy-focused L2, Ignition Chain, has launched on mainnet following its token sale.
• DINBuild launched an AVS (Autonomous Verifiable Service) on EigenLayer, leveraging decentralised economy security to secure its RPC (Remote Procedure Call) marketplace.
• BOB (Build on Bitcoin), the Bitcoin L2 mainnet is officially live, positioning itself as a gateway to Bitcoin DeFi.
• Scroll announced the USX stablecoin is officially live on the network, offering gasless and private transactions.
• Cardano experienced a brief chain split due to a bug triggered by a malformed ADA delegation. The issue is currently under FBI investigation according to founder Charles Hoskinson.
• Core DAO successfully obtained a court injunction against Maple Finance in the Cayman Islands. Core alleges Maple breached a 24-month exclusivity agreement by using confidential information to build a competing product.

Dapps

• Aave launched Aave App, a user friendly mobile application designed to onboard non-crypto users into DeFi. Aave V4 testnet is live, featuring a developer preview of the new interface, Aave Pro.
• 1inch introduced Aqua, a new liquidity protocol that leverages token “committed” instead of locking on a smart contract, enabling users to have full custody and flexibility on their token holding.
• Ondo obtained EU approval for offering tokenised stocks and ETF across Europe.
• Centrifuge partnered with Caesar Data to offer tokenized equity via a SEC-registered transfer agent, marking the first crypto-native company to issue tokenized equity directly on-chain instead of synthetic wrappers.
• Polymarket announced a partnership to become the official prediction market of the UFC. Additionally, KaitoAI launched verifiable mindshare markets on Polymarket.
• Zama, the leading fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) protocol, launched its testnet v2.
• Talus Labs launched a demo for Talus Vision, a no-code visual workflow builder designed to enable developers to create, deploy, and manage decentralized AI-powered automations directly on-chain.
• Fraction AI introduced Stable-Up, a new space for AI agents to manage stablecoins in a capital-efficient manner based on user risk profiles.
• RedStone launched the Dynamic PT Oracle in collaboration with Objective DeFi, providing accurate pricing for Pendle’s Principal Tokens, with the first use cases launching on Euler Finance. Redstone also launched Push Oracle on Upbit’s Layer-2, GIWA testnet.
• Walrus Protocol partnered with Myriad Markets to bring fully verifiable onchain data to prediction markets.
• Pudgy Penguins collaborated with collectible toy brand BE@RBRICK to launch a limited edition 750 physical collectible sets.
• Pendle partnered with Galaxy to provide institutional investors with scalable access to fixed and variable yields, bridging traditional finance and DeFi through principal (PT) and yield (YT) tokens.
• Nillion, a privacy computing protocol, stated its market maker sold NIL tokens without legal authorisation and caused NIL prices plummet. The team is currently taking legal actions against the mentioned market maker.
• Injective introduced Community Buyback, enabling users that burnt INJ to earn a share of protocol’s onchain revenue.
• Filecoin introduced Filecoin Onchain Cloud, a new warm storage platform with programmatic payment rail via smart contract.
• OpenLedger launched its first phase of mainnet. Users can now contribute datasets to OpenLedger Studio and be rewarded every time dataset is used for an output inside ModelFactory.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• Monad mainnet is launching on November 24.
• Coinbase teased a major announcement on December 17 on its X bio. An independent researcher suggested the announcement could potentially be related to the launch of prediction markets and stock trading by reverse-engineering code from Coinbase mobile apps.
• Solana community introduced proposal SIMD-0411, which seeks to double the inflation decrement rate from -15% to -30%. If passed, this would accelerate SOL reaching its 1.5% long-term inflation target by early 2029 rather than 2032.
• Arbitrum co-founder Steven Goldfeder hinted at the development of private Arbitrum chains, noting the original Arbitrum paper focused heavily on privacy.
• Curve Finance founder Michael Egorov proposed increasing the crvUSD credit line for Yield Basis to $1 billion, to be utilized in increments as required.
• Velora proposed seeding a VLR/BOLD pool on Base using funds from an existing OP grant to leverage Liquity V2 incentivized liquidity.
• The fast growing perpetual exchange, EdgeX announced the platform will soon integrate Polymarket.
• Hyperliquid announced HIP-3 Growth Mode, reducing the taker fees for eligible trading pairs by 90%.

Token Unlock

• XPL token unlocks on November 25, amount representing 4.94% of the token supply.
• TAKE token unlocks on November 25, amount representing 9.12% of the token supply.
• HUMA token unlocks on November 25, amount representing 7.28% of the token supply.
• WCT token unlocks on November 26, amount representing 68.8% of the token supply.
• RESOLV token unlocks on November 27, amount representing 9.14% of the token supply.
• TREE token unlocks on November 29, amount representing 6.16% of the token supply.
• HYPE token unlocks on November 29, amount representing 2.66% of the token supply.
• ZORA token unlocks on November 30, amount representing 3.73% of the token supply.
• IO token unlocks on November 30, amount representing 6.09% of the token supply.
• KMNO token unlocks on November 30, amount representing 6.92% of the token supply.
• EIGEN token unlocks on December 1, amount representing 8.35% of the token supply.