(45/52) Weekly Market Insight | November Week 3 | Awaiting Guidance

Headline News: Awaiting Guidance

• Bitcoin price fell below the critical $100,000 level last week, closing the week with a 10% drop, as Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced their third consecutive weekly net outflow of $1.11 billion. These moves are being driven by tightening and uncertain macro conditions, including lower expectations for a December Fed rate cut and stock market pressure, which contributed to a retreat from high-risk assets like crypto. Crypto Fear and Greed Index hit 10, its lowest value since February 2025.
• The market is anticipating the upcoming Nvidia earnings report to support the high valuation in the AI sector and the revised September jobs data to be released on Thursday.

Macro-Outlook: Rate Cut Caution

• The US Congress passed the funding bill to reopen the government, ending the 43-day government shutdown. The $961 billion in Treasury General Account (TGA) is expected to be spent soon. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced the revised release of September jobs report on November 20, but October jobs report will likely not be published as the data is conducted using household surveys.
• President Trump signed the Executive Order to reduce tariffs on foods such as beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas.
• The probability of a 25bps rate cut in December dropped from 66% to 43%, due to several hawkish Fed commentaries last week and the absence of October economic data would encourage the Fed officials to stay cautious and remain on hold.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

• Thursday, November 20 (after the US market closes): Nvidia Q3 earnings
• Thursday, November 20, 3:00am: October FOMC Minutes
• Thursday, November 20, 8:30pm: US Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate in September

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Lean Ethereum ; More Fees Switch Proposals

• SEC Chair Paul Atkins has unveiled a plan for a “token taxonomy” aimed at redefining crypto regulation, explicitly stated network tokens, digital collectibles and digital tools such as memberships and tickets are not securities.
• The US Treasury announced new guidance, providing a clear and seamless regulatory path for crypto ETPs to stake digital assets and distribute rewards to retail investors.
• DBS Bank and JPMorgan are reportedly building an interoperability framework (via Kinexys) for tokenized deposits between Ethereum and DBS’s network. JPMorgan also officially launched its JPM Coin deposit token for institutional clients, enabling 24/7 real-time transfers using the Base blockchain.
• Standard Chartered and DCS are partnering to support a stablecoin credit card in Singapore.
• NH NongHyup Bank, the major South Korean bank, is piloting a stablecoin-based VAT refund system. The proof-of-concept involves Avalanche, Fireblocks, Mastercard, and Worldpay.
• Taiwan’s government and central bank are reportedly evaluating adding Bitcoin to the national strategic reserves, potentially using seized BTC as a pilot.
• FanDuel and CME Group are launching “FanDuel Predicts” in December, a platform for trading sports outcome contracts in non-betting states.
• SoFi has launched early access for its crypto trading product, with a waitlist open until November 30, 2025.
• UAE’s new Central Bank law reportedly criminalizes offering unlicensed crypto tools, including self-custody wallets and explorers.
• OKX launched in-app DEX trading on OKX App (similar to Binance Alpha), offering users access to on-chain assets on Solana, Base, and X Layer with no gas or bridging friction.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

• Ethereum core developer, Justin Drake, introduced the Lean Ethereum initiative, aiming to make Ethereum base layer quantum-resistant, scale to 10,000 TPS and support 1 million TPS on rollups, integrate zkVM and more.
• Circle announced Circle StableFX, an institutional-grade stablecoin FX engine, and Circle Partner Stablecoins, aiming to integrate partners’ stablecoin for real-world payment and low splippage pricing. Circle also plans a native token for its Arc layer-1 enterprise testnet to facilitate distributed governance, as gas was previously planned to be USDC.
• Babylon mainnet upgraded successfully and reduced BABY inflation from 8% to 5.5% and added a BTC co-staking, offering 109% APR for co-stakers, versus 0.06% for BTC-only stakers.
• Polygon has been chosen by Calastone, the world’s largest funds network with over 4,500 institutional clients, to launch tokenized fund share classes。
• Cardano Foundation announced the Cardano Card, launched by Emurgo and Wirex, to integrate Cardano into mainstream payments for over 6 million users.
• Helios launched its beta mainnet, a layer-1 designed to provide the core infrastructure for creating and managing automated, cross-chain financial products, like tokenized portfolios, directly at the blockchain level.
• Conflux Network launched USDT0 and offshore Chinese Yuan CNHT0, adding omnichain stablecoin liquidity to power global Web3 payments and settlements.
• EigenCloud and LayerZero have partnered to launch EigenZero, introducing slashable security modules on the Decentralized Verifier Network (DVN), backed by $5 million in ZRO stake.

Dapps

• Aave Labs announced the launching of zero-fee fiat on/off-ramps solution, Push, for GHO and other stablecoins in Europe under MiCAR authorisation.
• DYDX passed the DYDX token buybacks from 25% to 75% of protocol fees, removed trading fees for BTC and SOL perpetual markets, and upgraded its affiliate program to offer up to 50% of taker fees to boost referral activities.
• Hyperliquid Liquidity Provider (HLP) vault suffered a $4.9 million loss due to a sophisticated price manipulation attack centered on the POPCAT memecoin.
• Polymarket partnered with Yahoo Finance (exclusive) and Google to integrate its betting odds directly into their search and finance results. It has also quietly relaunched in the US in beta mode.
• Yield Basis announced a migration of liquidity providers to an improved pool contract to correct fee allocation logic, and enhance stability of the pool during high volatility market conditions.
• Chainlink’s Automated Compliance Engine (ACE) is being integrated by Global Layer One (GL1), a public-private group that is led by MAS, defining standards for regulated digital assets.
• DualMint launched RoboFarm on Peaq network. RoboFarm is an automated farm that generates yield for investors on every green produced and sold.
• Jupiter’s Ultra API is now live on the Robinhood app, enabling users to explore, swap, and trade SPL tokens.
• Virtuals Protocol introduced Luna.fun, a new AI-powered launchpad that aims to automate the entire lifecycle of content creation and promotion, specifically for creating and popularizing meme tokens.
• Allora Network announced the launch of the S&P500 prediction market in collaboration with Alibaba Cloud and CloudicianTech.
• Pieverse released its whitepaper, detailing its agent-native, compliant payment stack for auditable, gasless payments using x402b and on-chain invoicing.
• T1 Protocol released its Vision Litepaper, detailing a design for real-time, permissionless interoperability between Ethereum and existing rollups by interacting with rollups’ layer-1 bridge contracts directly and using hybrid security models including TEEs, ZK-proofs and security bonds.
• Threshold Network launched its upgraded app and website, offering a unified experience for managing tBTC across supported networks.
• Beep introduced Beep Pay on the Sui Network, enabling instant payments globally using either credit cards or USDC.
• Centrifuge launched Centrifuge Whitelabel, a Tokenization-as-a-Service platform to help others build, launch, and scale tokenized assets faster.
• Roba Labs, a decentralised robotics platform, partnered with IoTeX to use ioID-verified identities and other DePIN sensor data, enabling their robots to be “context-aware” and adapt.
• Fhenix announced that its CoFHE (Confidential Homomorphic Encryption) is now live on the Base network, enabling developers to create encrypted smart contract applications.
• Renaiss Protocol is now live on BNB Chain, building a RWA liquidity infrastructure for real-world collectibles.
• Ethena announced the new sENA value model, where sENA now earns airdrop rewards from Ethena ecosystem protocols such as Ethereal, Based, Derive and more.
• Magic Eden announced the use of 30% of all secondary marketplace revenue for buybacks, where 15% is used for on-chain ME buybacks and 15% for NFTs buyback based on volume generated on Magic Eden.
• Bluwhale launched WhaleTank V2 on BNB Chain. Similar to Virtuals, the platform tokenises AI agents and supports x402 rails for payments.
• Nillion announced it is bringing Blind Computer, its privacy-focused compute and storage layer, to the Ethereum network.
• Safe launched Safe Ventures, a new venture fund dedicated to backing startups that accelerate self-custody adoption.
• ENS and Celo launched Celonames, human-readable names powered by ENS and integrated with Self Protocol for proof-of-personhood verification.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

• Coinbase is launching token sales on its platform, including for US users. The first sale will be for Monad’s MONAD on November 17.
• Aave teased a major announcement on November 17.
• Ethereum DevConnect is held from November 17 to 22 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
• Fluid will introduce DEX v2 and release potential “alpha” (potentially official launch) at DevConnect on November 21.
• Uniswap co-founder Hayden Adams has formally proposed to governance to turn on protocol fees, potentially introduce one-time 100 million UNI token burn and 1% to 5% token burn annually based on volume generated from Uniswap v2, v3 and Unichain sequencing. The new Continuous Clearing Auction Protocol (CCA) has been launched to create a fairer token distribution mechanism, with Aztec being the first protocol to use the CCA for its AZTEC token sales.
• Lido proposed a new automated LDO buyback mechanism, targeting $4 million annually with $10 million maximum cap, and only execute buyback if ETH price is above $3000 and Lido annual revenue exceeds $40 million.
• Maple Finance proposed MIP-019 that aims to shift the SYRUP staking yield funded by the protocol revenue to the Syrup Strategic Fund (SSF) which can be used for automated token buybacks.
• Pendle’s Boros is expanding beyond BTC and ETH, with new trading venues and UX updates planned soon.
• Sonic’s new CEO shared a new update that focuses on building a sustainable, revenue-driven business, which includes a new tiered FeeM structure from 15% to 90% for developers, 10% for validators and the remaining portion will be burned.
• Cookie DAO launched the Cookie Launchpad, powered by Legion. It aims to use attention, capital commitment and COOKIE stakers as part of the allocation model for new launches. Vooi, the perpetual exchange aggregator, will be the first protocol launched on Cookie Launchpad.
• Aerodrome and Velodrome are reportedly merging into a single protocol, Aero, which will launch on Ethereum and Circle’s Arc. The team also introduced MetaDEX03, a new DEX model that aims to increase revenue by capturing MEV revenue and increase efficiency, built-in cross-chain functionality and compliance institutional pools. MetaDEX03 is expected to fully launch in Q2 2026.
• Aevo proposed AGP-3, Aevonomics, introducing a one-time 69 million AEVO token burn (6.9% of total supply), new staking rewards tier funded by DAO treasury’s LP revenue, new dynamic buyback model based on exchange volume and more.
• Huma Finance introduced a new flywheel mechanism, launching in Q4 2025, which includes a humaSOL validator, looping strategies, and HUMA buybacks funded by vault yield.
• Zama announced its upcoming ZAMA token, which will be used for fee payments (which will be 100% burnt), staking (10% inflation rate initially) and governance. Zama is expected to launch its mainnet in Q4 2025.

Token Unlock

• ZRO token unlocks on November 21, amount representing 10.3% of the token supply.
• KAITO token unlocks on November 21, amount representing 6.91% of the token supply.
• PLUME token unlocks on November 21, amount representing 3.25% of the token supply.
• SCR token unlocks on November 22, amount representing 5.73% of the token supply.
• TURTLE token unlocks on November 22, amount representing 7.82% of the token supply.
• NIL token unlocks on November 24, amount representing 4.16% of the token supply.
• XPL token unlocks on November 25, amount representing 4.94% of the token supply.
• TAKE token unlocks on November 25, amount representing 9.12% of the token supply.
• HUMA token unlocks on November 25, amount representing 7.28% of the token supply.
• WCT token unlocks on November 26, amount representing 68.8% of the token supply.
• RESOLV token unlocks on November 27, amount representing 9.14% of the token supply.