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Weekly Market Insight: August week 3
21 Aug 2023

Headline News

Bitcoin price plummeted to $25,000 on last Friday. The selloff could be the result of multiple factors such as

further increased of US longer term government bond yields to within a few basis points of their 2022 highs. Market anticipated more restrictive monetary policy than expected after the release of July FOMC minutes, cited “Most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy”,

market reaction on SpaceX and Tesla sales of Bitcoins in 2021 and 2022, and

crypto future contract liquidation from the selloff amount over $1billion in a single day.

 

Macro-Outlook

After released of July FOMC minutes, US bond yield surged to 2022 high across the duration. The 30 year fixed rate mortgage, 7.09% p.a., reached its highest level in over 20 years. Despite that, CME Fed Funds Futures indicated market expected 88.5% possibility rate remains unchanged in September and increasing odds on rate remain unchanged in 2023.

In the minutes, stuffs no longer predict a recession in 2023, increased discussion on employment mandate. Balance sheet is expected to continue runoff, even after the rate cut. In fact, the Fed's balance sheet, which has been shrinking since the liquidity crisis of small and medium-sized banks in March this year, has fallen to the same level in June 2021.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

  • Several Fed members speeches including Barkin, Goolsbee and Bowman.
  • Wednesday, after close: NVIDIA earning release
  • Thursday, 24th August 8:30pm: US July Durable Goods Orders
  • Friday, 25th August 10:05pm: Jerome Powell speech in Jackson Hole Symposium

 

Cryptos-Outlook

The National Futures Association(NFA) has approved Coinbase as a registered Futures Commission Merchant to offer futures contracts in BTC and ETH in the US.

Bloomberg reported SEC is set to allow the first Ether Future ETF from anonymous sources familiar with the matter.

Trending Protocols

Layer 1 and Layer 2

  • Shiba Inu launched Layer 2 Shibarium, however $1.7million worth of ETH is potentially unrecoverable and remains in the bridge address. Co-founder of Shiba Inu ecosystem, Shytoshi Kusama dismissed the issue and called it FUD.
  • Dogecoin core developer, Mishaboar stated he will quit if Dogecoin transitions to PoS.
  • OpBNB mainnet is live for infrastructure providers.
  • SEI mainnet beta is live and already listed in major exchanges.
  • Stellar released the open-source Stellar Disbursement Platform, a bulk disbursements tool for global payments using digital assets.

Dapps

  • MakerDAO reduced EDSR from 8% to 5%.
  • OpenSea announced discontinued support for BSC NFTs to create new listing or new offer. OpenSea also announced implementation of optional creator fees starting in September.
  • Thorchain lending is live, enabling users to borrow against BTC and ETH with collateral ratio at 200% without liquidations, interest and expirations. Thorchain also target to launch Stable Savers on Thursday. Thorchain trading volume notched year 2023 record high in the past week.
  • Friend.tech, a BASE-based social media platform via which users are able to monetize their group share, the price of the group share will then increase when more people buy the it. Generated more fees than Uniswap on last Sunday.
  • GND and GMD Protocols is live on BASE.
  • Threshold Network tBTC is live on Solana.
  • Pendle is live on Optimism.
  • PancakeSwap is live on Arbitrum.

Upcoming Alpha: Token Unlock, Governance

  • BitDAO/Mantle proposed FTX/Alameda-owned BIT token should not be converted to MNT token.
  • Synthetix proposed to launch V3 on BASE.
  • EigenLayer is expected to raise restaking cap limit from 22nd August.
  • Frax V3 is expected to be launched in August, mentioned by founder Sam Kazemian.
  • Gains Network new Q3 tokenomics plan, which will increase existing GNS staker earning 60% at the same revenue targeted to go live in September.
  • Starknet 0.12.1, 2nd stage of the Quantum Leap is expected to be pushed to mainnet this week, the upgrade aims to improve transaction efficiency.
  • 1INCH Token Unlocked on 24th August, amount representing 0.03% of the token supply.
  • LDO Token Unlocked on 26th August, amount representing 0.97% of the token supply.
  • AVAX Token Unlocked on 26th August, amount representing 2.77% of the token supply.
  • DYDX Token Unlocked on 29th August, amount representing 3.77% of the token supply.
  • OP Token Unlocked on 30th August, amount representing 3.37% of the token supply.

 

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